Morning Grain Comments

CURRENT TREND: Lower REASON: Grains can’t break through on charts, fundamental news slow, outside markets weigh

CFTC COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORTS @ 2:30 PM

MORNING TRIVIA: What country produces the most cars, with almost one-quarter of global output at 14.5 million cars in 2011?

MARKET HEADLINES

Quick Editorial: the grain trade appears be in lying in the weeds this morning,
yielding to outside markets with no real fundamental bombshells seen overnight
or expected yet today; it’s the outside forces that will be considering
things like U.S. economic data and a potentially historic oncoming NE storm.
It can’t be avoided—an 80-acre plot of farmland in Northwest Iowa (Sioux
County) sold for $21,900 per acre yesterday, following recent nearby sales at
$15, $16, and $19k; bidders are lining up like crazy for a rash of land auctions
in the next month-plus, as sellers try to realize massive IA farmland returns
and possibly avoid an increase in the capital gains tax at the end of the year.
Japan bought 29,720 tonnes of food wheat & 10k tonnes of food barley today
Ukraine’s Ag Min reported the grain harvest at 40.76 MMT as of yesterday,
or 92% of the total area to be harvested; that compares to 48.52 MMT on the
same date last year. Average yields are running just shy of 3 tonnes per hectare,
down from nearly 3.5 tonnes last season. The current corn harvest stands
at 14.47 MMT (76% complete), with yields at 4.3 tonnes per ha (68.5 bpa).
The South African Crop Estimates Committee estimated corn plantings at
2.74 million hectares (6.77 mln acres) this coming season, up just over a percent
on the year, compared to trade estimates for a slightly lower planted area.
The CEC pegged white corn plantings at 1.6 mln ha, with yellow at 1.14 mln.
The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange reported soybean planting at just 2%
complete so far, down from 6% a year ago due to recent heavy rainfall.
The IGC yesterday morning cut their global corn estimate by 3 MMT (to 830
MMT) and wheat by 2 MMT (to 665 MMT); total global ending grain stocks
for 2012/13 fell by 4 MMT this month to 328 MMT, the lowest since ‘07/08.
Export Sales (000 tonnes): This Week / Estimates / Last Week
Corn: 142.3 / 150-375 / 166.7 Beans: 522.2 / 600-900 / 525.2
Wheat: 572.0 / 250-450 / 410.0 *Meal: 176.6 / 150-250 / 146.0
Oil: 12.0 / 15-25 / 24.5 *old + new crop combined