Morning Grain Comments
CURRENT TREND: Lower REASON: Grains can’t break through on charts, fundamental news slow, outside markets weigh
CFTC COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORTS @ 2:30 PM
MORNING TRIVIA: What country produces the most cars, with almost one-quarter of global output at 14.5 million cars in 2011?
- Quick Editorial: the grain trade appears be in lying in the weeds this morning,
yielding to outside markets with no real fundamental bombshells seen overnight
or expected yet today; it’s the outside forces that will be considering
things like U.S. economic data and a potentially historic oncoming NE storm.
- It can’t be avoided—an 80-acre plot of farmland in Northwest Iowa (Sioux
County) sold for $21,900 per acre yesterday, following recent nearby sales at
$15, $16, and $19k; bidders are lining up like crazy for a rash of land auctions
in the next month-plus, as sellers try to realize massive IA farmland returns
and possibly avoid an increase in the capital gains tax at the end of the year.
- Japan bought 29,720 tonnes of food wheat & 10k tonnes of food barley today
- Ukraine’s Ag Min reported the grain harvest at 40.76 MMT as of yesterday,
or 92% of the total area to be harvested; that compares to 48.52 MMT on the
same date last year. Average yields are running just shy of 3 tonnes per hectare,
down from nearly 3.5 tonnes last season. The current corn harvest stands
at 14.47 MMT (76% complete), with yields at 4.3 tonnes per ha (68.5 bpa).
- The South African Crop Estimates Committee estimated corn plantings at
2.74 million hectares (6.77 mln acres) this coming season, up just over a percent
on the year, compared to trade estimates for a slightly lower planted area.
The CEC pegged white corn plantings at 1.6 mln ha, with yellow at 1.14 mln.
- The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange reported soybean planting at just 2%
complete so far, down from 6% a year ago due to recent heavy rainfall.
- The IGC yesterday morning cut their global corn estimate by 3 MMT (to 830
MMT) and wheat by 2 MMT (to 665 MMT); total global ending grain stocks
for 2012/13 fell by 4 MMT this month to 328 MMT, the lowest since ‘07/08.
- Export Sales (000 tonnes): This Week / Estimates / Last Week
Corn: 142.3 / 150-375 / 166.7 Beans: 522.2 / 600-900 / 525.2
Wheat: 572.0 / 250-450 / 410.0 *Meal: 176.6 / 150-250 / 146.0
Oil: 12.0 / 15-25 / 24.5 *old + new crop combined