Morning Grain Comments
CURRENT TREND: Lower REASON: Grains predictably pull back from post-USDA rally, optimistic foreign production
EXPORT SALES @ 7:30 AM, CFTC REPORTS @ 2:30 PM; NOPA SEPT CRUSH MONDAY @ 7:30 AM
MORNING TRIVIA: Born on this day in 1970, this athlete won the Heisman trophy, and was drafted by the NBA and MLB in 1993-1994…
MARKET HEADLINES
- Quick Editorial: the grains held up well right up until the close yesterday, but
gradually took some of those profits overnight; keeping with yesterday morning’s
theme, it was beans again leading the charge lower and taking the bulk
of the volume, despite an initial corn-centric post-USDA rally. Larger 2012
(and 2011) soy production has at least temporarily dampened stocks concerns. - Japan’s Ag Min issued an SBS tender for 55,000 tonnes of milling wheat and
11k tonnes of barley, closing in two weeks and for shipment by the end of Jan - South Korea has canceled tenders for up to 210,000 tonnes of corn for March-
April arrival and up to 70k tonnes of wheat for January 20 arrival; a senior
official from the country’s largest feed miller said that they are undecided on
the date of the next tender, due to both “internal issues” and high prices…
- The Buenos Aires Exchange pegged Argentina’s 2012/13 wheat production at
10.12 million tonnes in their initial crop estimate yesterday, down from 13.2
MMT last year due a sharp one-million-hectare drop in planted area, as farmers
(and prices) continue to be hampered by government export controls. The
USDA left their ‘12/13 ARG estimate steady at 11.5 MMT in the Oct S&D. - The latest estimate from the Russian Ag Ministry has total 2012 grain production
at 71.7 MMT, on the lower end of previous 70-75 MMT projections, and
down from 94.2 MMT in 2011; the harvest campaign had reached 70.6 MMT
as of Tuesday, down 23% from over 90 MMT on the same date last season. - October Yield (mln bu): USDA Oct / Avg Est / USDA Sept
Corn: 122.0 / 122.7 / 122.8 Beans: 37.8 / 37.0 / 35.3 - October Production (mln bu): USDA Oct / Avg Est / USDA Sept
Corn: 10.706 / 10.598 / 10.727 Beans: 2.860 / 2.770 / 2.634 - Oct ’12/13 Carryout (mln bu): USDA Oct / Avg Est / USDA Sept
Corn: 0.619 / 0.645 / 0.733 Beans: 0.130 / 0.134 / 0.115
Wheat: 0.654 / 0.627 / 0.698
