Morning Grain Comments
CURRENT TREND: Mixed/??? REASON: Beans still the market leader, sharp recovery tempered a bit ahead of USDA S&D table
USDA OCTOBER S&D REPORT @ 7:30 AM TODAY; TOMORROW: EXPORT SALES @ 7:30 AM, CFTC REPORTS @ 2:30 PM
MORNING TRIVIA: Name the three U.S. banks that have branch locations in all 50 states…
- Quick Editorial: soybeans are still the clear trailblazer for the grains, doubling
up corn’s total volume overnight, with contracts through July regaining
over 20 cents at one point; cooler heads prevailed this morning ahead of what
will be a crucial S&D update for the bean table, with strong yield/production/
carryin gains expected (needed) to override a necessary demand increase.
- Jordan has issued tenders for 100k tonnes of wheat and 150k tonnes of barley
from any origin, with the wheat tender closing Nov 6 and barley Oct 23.
- South Korea bought 25k tonnes of U.S. wheat overnight, set for shipment in
Jan, with prices of the three different varieties ranging from $331-$378/tonne.
- Japan bought 152,647 tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly tender
as planned, including 75k from the US, 46k from Canada, and 32k from AUS.
- Argentina’s Ag Minister is expecting record corn and soy crops in 2012/13
(hopefully) due to El Nino; beans (planting of the crop just got underway) are
seen at 55-60 MMT, up from the previous record of 52.7 MMT in ‘09/10, and
just 41 MMT last year. Corn is once again seen at 28-30 MMT in ‘12/13, up
from the previous best of 24 MMT in ‘10/11, and 21 MMT LY. USDA forecasts
are currently equal to the low end of both those optimistic forecasts.
- China sold 225,355 tonnes of soybeans from its state reserves at this week’s
auction, 56% of the volume it had offered -the beans were from the 2009
crop, as initial offers for 2010 stocks were priced much higher…the CNGOIC
said that soybean inventories are “still ample”, and auctions “will continue”.
- Ukraine’s Ag Ministry agreed to allow another million tonnes of wheat exports
in 2012/13 (July-June), with 5 MMT now cleared for export; they’ve
already shipped 3 MMT of wheat from July 1 through October 8.
- October Yield Estimates (mln bu): Avg Est / Est Range / USDA Sept
Corn: 122.7 / 119.9-127.0 / 122.8 Beans: 37.0 / 35.5-38.5 / 35.3
- October Production Estimates (mln bu): Avg Est / Est Range / USDA Sept
Corn: 10.598 / 9.954-11.194 / 10.727 Beans: 2.770 / 2.600-2.903 / 2.634
- Oct ’12/13 Carryout Estimates (mln bu): Avg Est / Est Range / USDA Sept
Corn: 0.645 / 0.454-0.815 / 0.733 Beans: 0.134 / 0.095-0.203 / 0.115
Wheat: 0.627 / 0.550-0.714 / 0.698