Morning Grain Comments
CURRENT TREND: Lower REASON: Soybeans continue to lead decline on stronger private crop estimates/ideas
INFORMA PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FRIDAY @ 10:30 AM, USDA OCT S&D REPORT NEXT THURSDAY @ 7:30 AM
MORNING TRIVIA: Which of the seven continents contains the largest number of countries?
- Quick Editorial: a morning bounce took back 4-6 cents in corn and 15-20 in
beans, but the damage was done by the early A.M. hours following FCStone’s
crop estimates yesterday afternoon. The trade isn’t looking for a change in
fundamental sentiment anytime soon either, with Informa looming Friday and
the USDA likely to face estimates for production increases next week as well.
- Japan bought a combined 23k tonnes of feed wheat and barley in an SBS tender
this morning, for shipment by January 31; they had bought 63k tonnes of
feed wheat and 39k tonnes of feed barley in an SBS tender last week. Japan
also issued another tender for 120k tonnes of feed wheat and 200k tonnes of
barley, closing a week from today, also for shipment by the end of Jan.
- Egypt is seeking up to 60k tonnes of wheat for Dec 11-20 delivery, including
(at this point) U.S. soft white, U.S. SRWW, Ukraine, & AUS standard white.
- A Western Australian wheat marketer estimated the state’s grain harvest at
9.1 MMT, compared to last year’s record 15 MMT; INTL FCStone’s Australian
office is looking for a national harvest of near 20 MMT, compared to the
USDA’s current 26 MMT estimate, and last year’s record 29.5 MMT crop.
- Ukraine’s grain harvest is up to 33 MMT as this morning, including 7.2 MMT
of corn; average grain yields are running at 2.76 tonnes per hectare, down
from 3.2 tonnes on the comparable date last season
- FCStone reported the national corn yield at 123.9 bushels per acre, up 2.5 bpa
from last month and 1.1 bpa above the USDA September estimate; corn production
of 10.824 billion bushels was 217 mbu above last month, and almost
100 mbu above the USDA. Soybean yields were pegged at 38.2 bpa, up 1.5
bpa from last month and almost 3 bpa above the USDA, with production of
2.849 bln bu beating last month by 110 mln bu and the USDA by 215 mbu.