MorningGrain Comments: Thursday September 13, 2012

CURRENT TREND: Mixed REASON: Grains settle in following USDA; wheat persistent on foreign production/export concerns

EXPORT SALES @ 7:30 AM; NOPA CRUSH @ 7:30 AM TOMORROW

MORNING TRIVIA: Which state, due to the 2010 Census, will add the most electoral votes (+4, to 38 total) in the 2012 presidential election?

MARKET HEADLINES

Quick Editorial: choppy trade across the overnight session reflected the
trade’s uncertainty after the USDA Report; beans have been unable to build
on yesterday’s momentum, while wheat has at least tentatively taken the lead
this morning. The trade is eyeing the USDA’s Russian wheat cut, and importers
continuing to seek supplies while foreign suppliers struggle to produce…
Japan bought 112,441 tones of milling wheat as scheduled, with over 50k
tonnes from the U.S. (for Dec arrival), 46k from Canada, and 26k from AUS.
Strategie Grains slashed their 2012/13 E.U. corn production estimate by 4.3
million tonnes this morning, to 53.7 MMT; this after the USDA cut their E.U.
number by 4.4 MMT yesterday, to 57.14 MMT. Strategie cut output in a number
of countries, including Romania and Bulgaria; they also reduced their
‘12/13 soft wheat estimate by 1.7 MMT, to 123.6 MMT, due to hot & dry
weather. Total grain production for the Union only fell by 4.4 MMT this
month to 270.5 MMT, with barley making up for some corn & wheat losses.
China’s Grain.gov estimated that the country’s corn imports could fall to 1
MMT in 2013, down from 5.5 MMT in 2012, strained by record prices and
buyers likely cancelling contracts. Meanwhile, the chairman of Shanghai’s
JCI said that China’s 2012 output would basically be steady with LY or lower.