Morning Grain Comments: Tuesday, September 11, 2012

CURRENT TREND: Steady/Mixed REASON: Grains find some measure of support from oncoming USDA S&D, Aussie wheat losses

SEPTEMBER USDA S&D REPORT @ 7:30 AM TOMORROW; NOPA CRUSH @ 7:30 AM FRIDAY

MORNING TRIVIA: What percent of the world’s population now has a mobile phone? (hint: percentage divisible by ten)

MARKET HEADLINES

Quick Editorial: it’s a sorry excuse for a Turnaround Tuesday for the grain
trade, with the front-end contracts peeking above even; a steady downtrend
has snuck up on the market as of late, with the bulls exhausted from a long
summer and waiting for the final September word from the USDA tomorrow.
Japan is looking for 112,441 tonnes of milling wheat in a regular weekly tender,
from the U.S., Canada, and Australia, for O-N-D shipment.
ABARE cut their winter wheat estimate by 7% this month, to 22.5 MMT;
that’s now down 24% from last year’s record, and well below the USDA’s
current 26 MMT. Western Australian output lost 1.55 MMT this month to 7.1
MMT, now down nearly 40% from LY due to dry weather. Total AUS winter
grain output was slashed by 2.3 MMT, to 36.2 MMT, down 20% from LY.
Safras & Mercado reported forward sales of Brazil’s ‘12/13 soy crop at 43%
as of Thursday, up from 39% a month ago, 22% LY, and the 16% 5YA.
The USDA pegged the national corn harvest at 15% done as of Sunday night,
up 5% from the previous week and ten points ahead of both last year and the
five-year average. Ratings were steady at 22% g/ex, with 58% of the crop
mature, versus 41% LW, 25% LY, and 27% on average. The initial bean harvest
report came in at 4%, up from 1% LY and the 2% 5YA; ratings for that
crop rose two points this week to 32% g/ex, with 36% of the crop having
dropped leaves, up from 19% LW, 12% LY, and the 20% 5YA. The first winter
wheat plantings report came out at 4%, versus 5% LY and the 6% 5YA.