Morning Grain Comments

CURRENT TREND: Lower REASON: Grains hit by outside market weakness, ideal weather split for U.S. crops at this point

EXPORT INSPECTIONS @ 10 AM, CROP PROGRESS @ 3 PM

MORNING TRIVIA: This company was founded on this day in 1948—they are the world’s largest manufacturer of internal combustion engines…

MARKET HEADLINES

Quick Editorial: overnight action was definitely a continuation of the pattern
that drove the last half of last week—corn neutral on the charts, beans down,
and wheat up—with the driving forces remaining largely the same. Harvest
continues to progress at a record pace, with upbeat results, at least in the north
India’s farm minister said today that the trade is projecting summer grain production
to drop 10% this year to 117.2 MMT, though those estimates aren’t as
negative as expected early on thanks to late-season rains; total 2012/13 grain
output is seen at 249.5 MMT, still down from last year’s record 257.4 MMT.
Informa on Friday morning estimated 2012 corn acreage at 97.2 million acres,
up 767k from the USDA, with initial 2013 area projected at 97.5 mln ac; 2012
bean area was seen at 77.1 mln ac, up just over a million from the current
USDA, with 2013 rising to 79.9 mln ac. Their corn and soybean production
estimates now stand 365 and 28 million bushels above the USDA, respectively.
All wheat area was pegged at 57.1 mln in 2013, up 1.3 mln from this season.
Informa estimated U.S. 2012 all wheat production at 2.273 billion bushels,
up five million from the USDA; yields are seen 0.2 bpa higher at 46.7
bpa, with acreage 190k lower on reduction in winter wheat and durum area.
Winter wheat output was pegged at 1.66 bln bu, down 23 mln from the
USDA, with spring production at 525 mln bu, 25 mln ahead of the USDA.
Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report showed all cattle as of Sept 1 at 99.4% of last
year, shy of the trade guess of 99.9% of LY; Aug placements/marketings both
came in at least 3% shy of estimates, at 89.1% and 95.5% of LY, respectively.
Friday’s CFTC Report showed traditional spec funds liquidating net contracts
in corn and the soybean complex, though corn’s 5k loss and a 12,778-net contract
drop for beans left both net overall longs well above where the trade had
expected them. The Disaggregated Report showed a net 12k loss in corn and a
10k drop in beans in the managed money category, while producers and merchants
cut their overall net shorts across the Chicago grains—up 24,692 corn,
+20k beans, +2.8k meal, +12.3k oil, & +8.5k wheat on the week ending 9/18.
Export Inspections Estimates (mln bu): Estimate Range / Last Week
Corn: 20-25 / 27.9 Beans: 10-15 / 10.0 Wheat: 20-25 / 29.4