Morning Grain Comments

CURRENT TREND: Lower REASON: Follow-through soybean sales on pleasant yield surprises, larger acreage, Asian unrest

EXPORT SALES @ 7:30 AM THURSDAY, CATTLE ON FEED @ 2 PM FRIDAY

MORNING TRIVIA: Minnesota was the state with the best voter turnout rate in the last Presidential election, at what (hint: nice round) percentage?

MARKET HEADLINES

Quick Editorial: corn/wheat are hanging in this morning, but beans have only
just settled in at another 20-30 cents lower, after yesterday’s limit move. Harvest
results continue to look more promising/less awful as the 2012 campaign
moves along at a record pace, with the weather not providing much-needed
soil moisture, but at least allowing combines to reach every much-needed acre.
Taiwan reportedly bought “several” containers of U.S. soybeans for Nov-Dec
shipment this morning, at 175-185 cents over the CBOT Jan C&F…
Japan is looking for 101,158 tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly
tender, including 19k tonnes of Canadian CWRS and 82k tonnes of U.S.
wheat varieties. It’s the lowest weekly volume sought since August 16.
ABARES is expecting record earnings from Australian wheat exports in
2012/13, with exports seen flat at 23 million tonnes this season (the USDA
stands at 24 MMT in 2011/12 and 21 MMT in 2012/13), but global prices
rising for a 15% jump in overall value. They are estimating U.S. output at 62
MMT in ‘12/13, slightly ahead of the USDA’s current 61.73 MMT figure,
with world production pegged at 665 MMT, up from the USDA’s 659 MMT.
The USDA reported the national corn harvest at 26% complete this week, up
from 15% last week, and well ahead of just 3% both last year and on average;
bean harvest came in at 10% done, up from 4% LW, LY and on average. Maturity
metrics remained well ahead of last year and average with corn 76%
mature, and 57% of the soybean crop having dropped leaves this week. Condition
ratings perked up a bit as of Sunday night as well, with corn up two
points to 24% g/ex, and beans up another point this week to 33% g/ex.
Export Inspections (mln bu): This Week / Estimates / Last Week
Corn: 10-15 / 9.8 Beans: 15-20 / 12.9 Wheat: 20-25 / 19.6