Abares warns of India threat to wheat prices

Australian officials flagged the risk posed by India to wheat prices even as they came in with a lowball forecast for world inventories of the crop, and hiked forecasts for values of the range of grains and oilseeds.

The Abares commodities bureau hiked to $350 a tonne, from $260 a tonne, its estimate for the average price of hard red winter wheat as offered for export in US Gulf of Mexico ports.

“This forecast reflects an expected fall in the supply of wheat in major exporting countries, particularly in the Black Sea region, and expected strong demand for feed wheat in the US and China,” the group said.

The upgraded price is equivalent to some $9.50 a bushel, well ahead of the value that Kansas hard red winter wheat futures were pricing in on Tuesday, of $9.05 a bushel for December delivery and a small premium, to $9.19 a bushel, for holding on until March.

Wheat futures on Tuesday managed a small rebound from the sharp drop in the last session and, indeed, the grain proved among the stronger agricultural commodities in early deals, helped by data showing US farmers slightly behind the pace with autumn sowings of the crop.

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