Zero Bund Yields No Deterrent to Euro Breakup Bets: Euro Credit
Investors are willing to own German bunds at zero yields on speculation the currency boost from a euro breakup would compensate for the sacrifice in returns.
“If you buy German assets denominated in euros today, you could find yourself holding an asset in a superior currency in a breakup scenario,” said Jamie Stuttard, who helps oversee $1.6 trillion as head of international bonds at Fidelity Management and Research Co. in London. “There isn’t a lot of value in German government bonds at these yield levels, and the single best reason to own German assets is re-denomination risk.”
The yield on German notes maturing in 2014 dropped below zero on June 1 and has been negative each day since July 6. While European leaders said they are working on a plan to help defuse the debt crisis, traders raised bets on euro disintegration. The implied probability of a country leaving the monetary union by the end of 2014 rose to 66 percent last week from 64 percent a week ago, according to bets on Intrade.com.