Morning Grain Comments 8/27
The trade will have all day to wait for Pro Farmer to wrap this baby up and put national estimates to paper; the consensus towards the end of the trip seems to be that MN (as expected) has the best potential among the corn belt states, but nowhere near as good as the USDA’s very slight YoY yield cuts there, and certainly nowhere near enough to save the national crop.
Taiwan’s BSPA bought three cargoes of U.S. and Brazilian soybeans today, totaling 173,000 tonnes, with deliveries set for November, March, and July.
Day 4 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour resulted in an average corn yield of 137.3 bpa in Iowa, down 16.6% from last year’s 164.6 bpa tour average; the USDA has YTY yields down a similar 18% in Iowa. Pod counts were down 18% in Iowa this year, exceeding USDA ideas for a 15% bean yield cut. PF estimated Minnesota corn at 156.2 bpa this year, down 11% from last season’s 175.9 bpa; the USDA has MN corn yields down just a bushel from 2011 at 155 bpa. Pod counts were seen 17% lower on the MN leg of the tour this year, while the USDA again expects only a tiny loss (down 1% to 38 bpa) in MN beans this season. Pro Farmer will publish their final yields at 2 PM central today.