Morning Grain Comments: Wednesday June 13, 2012
CURRENT TREND: Steady/Mixed REASON: Wheat regains ground on corn/soy on AUS estimate, S&D results, less favorable weather
EXPORT SALES TOMORROW @ 7:30 AM, NOPA CRUSH FRIDAY @ 7:30 AM
MORNING TRIVIA: Since 1960, what is the lowest percentage (hint: round number) of the world’s corn crop that the U.S. has ever produced?
- Quick Editorial: cooler heads are starting to prevail, now 24 hours past the
first USDA report released during trade; weather continues to be the major
factor, with a stark split between forecasts for the key U.S. corn/soy areas and
the main wheat-growing regions. A forecast cut by ABARE also lent support
to the wheat complex, after it saw the most bullish results yesterday as well…
- South Korean millers are seeking a total of 25,100 tonnes of U.S. wheat in a
tender next Thursday, with shipment set for Aug 15-Sep 15, while Japan is
looking for 147k tonnes (111k U.S.) in their regular tender closing tomorrow.
- ABARE dropped Australia’s 2012/13 wheat production estimate by 6% this
month, to 24.1 MMT; that’s down more than 5 MMT from last year’s record
crop, and now nearly 2 MMT below the 26 MMT USDA number yesterday.
- France Agrimer pegged the country’s 2011/12 soft wheat production at 33.91
MMT, even with the gov’t estimate but down from 35.71 MMT last season.
- Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported ‘11/12 grain exports (July 1-June 11) at 20.7
MMT, nearly double the amount over the same span last year; corn exports of
13.1 MMT are near 3x last season’s pace, while wheat exports of 5.05 MMT
are up 50% from LY. The Ag Min sees ‘12/13 grain exports at 22-23 MMT.
- Kazakhstan exported 11 MMT of grain from July 1-June 11, the most on record
over that time frame (up from the previous record 8.9 MMT in 2008/09).
- Argentine farmers called off their grain and livestock sales strike yesterday…
- 2011/12 USDA Carryout (bln bu): June USDA / Avg Est / May USDA
Corn: 0.851 / 0.828 / 0.851 Beans: 0.175 / 0.197 / 0.210
Wheat: 0.728 / 0.757 / 0.768
- 2012/13 USDA Carryout (bln bu): June USDA / Avg Est / May USDA
Corn: 1.881 / 1.740 / 1.881 Beans: 0.140 / 0.147 / 0.145
Wheat: 0.694 / 0.728 / 0.735
- June ARG ‘11/12 Prod (MMT): June USDA / Avg Est / May USDA
Corn: 21.0 / 20.4 / 21.5 Beans: 41.5 / 40.7 / 42.5
- June BRZ ’11/12 Prod (MMT): June USDA / Avg Est / May USDA
Corn: 67.0 / 67.6 / 67.0 Beans: 65.5 / 65.6 / 65.0